Rain ahead, what about snow?

It seems like years since I last updated the blog, but it actually was in June. I need to get back in the habbit of going more in depth with the forecast on here. With winter weather there is always more to talk about so I'll definitely start updating more often.

First off today expect the clouds to increase through the day as moisture starts to increase in advance of our storm system that moves through the area on Saturday. Showers will begin to develop after midnight and become more widespread on Saturday as a trough moves into the area. Rain will be heavy at times and it looks like we could see a general .50"-.75" of rain by the time Saturday night rolls around. Here is a look at 2 forecast models, the GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM (North American Mesoscale) and how much rain they are advertising for Region 8.
 


 

A cold front will move through the area on Saturday evening and behind it will be the coldest temperatures of the season! But the question is, will the cold air reach the moisture before it exits on Saturday night? I'm going to show you a few maps to give you a better idea of what looks to happen.

The map below is the 1000-500mb Thickness & Sea Level Pressure map from the GFS for Saturday night at 6pm. Follow the pink line...it's the 540 height line which is a good rain/snow line estimate. It's not all we look at to determine between rain and snow and other winter precip, but it's one assessment. With that said the pink line is just to our southeast and we still have some precipitation in the area. 

Looking at some other parameters from the GFS it gives us the possibilty for a few flakes of snow on Saturday night. The NAM is a little slower with the colder air and has most of the rain out of here, which means it thinks we have a less chance of seeing some snow. A few of the other computer models I look at still show the chance for at least a few flakes of snow mixing in. However, no accumulation is expected.

What we can expect is MUCH COLDER temperatures beginning on Sunday. The map below shows temperatures for Sunday afternoon. 

 Low 30s will be our highs on Sunday, but it will be blustery with northwest winds 10-20mph. That will give us wind chill values in the 10s and 20s so get ready for a blast of cold air. Here is a look at my latest forecast as of midday.




(Click on pic for larger image)


 That's all that you get from me for now.  ;)  It's time to head home from work and take a nap. Have a great weekend!!!

HOT...HOT...HOT!!!

It has been way too long since I last made a post on here. It seems like that's how I start off every post lately because I go through these lazy periods I guess. HAHA...Let's get straight to the forecast though.

It's not even summer yet and we're already dealing with highs in the mid and upper 90s. The Summer Solstice (beginning of summer) is Monday, June 21 at 6:28am CDT.

We are currently under a ridge of high pressure and it's only going to get stronger over the next few days. This image below is the 500mb chart (about 18,000ft above our heads). What does this chart really show? Well, I'm glad you asked because it is one of my favorite maps to look at. Here is a brief description: Basically it shows the current wind and heights at 500mb. The 500 mb level is often referred to as the steering level as most weather systems and precipitation follow the winds at this level.

Ok, so now that we got that meteorology lesson out of the way, back to the forecast. This is the 500mb chart below for Tuesday afternoon and it shows a 594dm ridge of high pressure over our area.

The heights can also be used to estimate surface temperatures since height of a pressure surface is related to the mean temperature of the air below it. Generally speaking, the higher the heights the warmer the temperatures.

So add that with lower soil moisture and slightly drier air on Tuesday and triple digits are possible. I have highs around 100° for Monday and 101° for Tuesday. We may see temperatures come down slightly by the middle and end of next week, but it will still be well above average (89°). 

Most of Region 8 is under a heat advisory until 8pm Monday. Feels like temperatures will range from 105° to 109° at times so please be careful if you have to be outside. During extreme heat drink plenty of water, avoid long periods of time outside, and keep an eye on your pets and elderly.

A backdoor cold front enters the area Thursday into Friday and could actually bring a few isolated showers/storms.  We are approaching 6inches below normal in the yearly rainfall category. So lets hope we see some rain during this time.

You can find my 7-day and latest video forecast here. Thanks for stopping by the blog and Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there.

More Damage Surveys

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 PM CDT MON MAY 03 2010

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM OF MAY 1ST TORNADOES IN ARKANSAS...

...PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN CROSS COUNTY ARKANSAS...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH OCCURRED IN CROSS COUNTY ON MAY 1 2010 FROM ABOUT 858 PM CDT TO 905 PM CDT. THE PATH WAS ABOUT 6.3 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WITH OF APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS.

THE TORNADO MOVED INTO CROSS COUNTY FROM WOODRUFF COUNTY NEAR PRIMROSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 49. THE TORNADO TRACKED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OPEN FARM LAND. THEN DAMAGED THREE HOMES AND SEVERAL OUT BUILDINGS ON US HIGHWAY 64. ONE HOME HAD MAJOR DAMAGE TO IT AND A TWO STORY BARN COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. THE OTHER TWO HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE. SEVERAL VERY LARGE TREES WERE ALSO KNOCKED DOWN. AT US 64 THE TORNADO SNAPPED 5 POWER POLES. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH OPEN FARM LAND BEFORE SNAPPING POWER LINES ALONG HIGHWAY 156 BEFORE LIFTING.

...PRELIMINARY EF-1 TORNADO IN POINSETT COUNTY ARKANSAS...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH OCCURRED IN POINSETT COUNTY ON MAY 1 2010 FROM ABOUT 935 PM CDT TO 939 PM CDT. THE PATH WAS ABOUT 6.2 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WITH OF APPROXIMATELY 400 YARDS.

A TORNADO TOUCHED SOUTHWEST OF WEONA AND MOVED A FARM IMPLEMENT AND THEN MOVED ACROSS OPEN FARM LAND DAMAGING SEVERAL TRANSMISSION LINES NEAR HWY 373 AND SNAPPING 4 POWER POLES ON HWY 373. THE TORNADO THEN DESTROYED A OFFICE TRAILER AT THE CROP DUSTER HANGER OFF HWY 14 IN WEONA AND ALSO DAMAGED THE HANGER. IT CONTINUED ACROSS OPEN FARM LAND DAMAGING MORE TREES...POWER POLES. IT CROSSED HENDERSON LANE AND DAMAGED ONE HOME. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST IN OPEN FARM LAND. IT SNAPPED THREE MORE TRANSMISSION LINES AS IT CROSSED MAPLE GROVE LANE. THE TORNADO DAMAGED MORE TREES BETWEEN THE FARM FIELDS BEFORE LIFTING.

Storm Survey's Are Underway (UPDATED)

Bold text is damage reports for Region 8.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

...DAMAGE SURVEYS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...

SEVERAL STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES WERE SPAWNED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF FRIDAY...APRIL 30TH. THE TORNADOES WERE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ON MAY 1ST...THERE MAY HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL TORNADOES PRODUCED IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. COMBINING THESE EVENTS...AS MANY AS A DOZEN TORNADOES COULD HAVE OCCURRED.

STORMS ON APRIL 30TH...

AT LEAST TEN TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED IN THE LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALL OF THESE TORNADO TRACKS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SURVEYED.

THE STRONGEST TORNADO TRACKED FROM 3 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF

JERUSALEM IN CONWAY COUNTY TO 3.2 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLINTON IN VAN BUREN COUNTY. THIS TORNADO HIT THE SCOTLAND COMMUNITY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF3...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 20.3 MILES.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE SCOTLAND TORNADO SPAWNED ANOTHER TORNADO 5.6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHIRLEY IN VAN BUREN COUNTY. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED 1 MILE NORTHEAST OF FOX IN STONE COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF1...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 8.7 MILES.

ANOTHER STORM SPAWNED A TORNADO THAT TRACKED FROM 4.7 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CENTER RIDGE IN CONWAY COUNTY TO 3.8 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BEE BRANCH IN VAN BUREN COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 11.7 MILES.

A TORNADO AFFECTED AREAS AROUND EAST END...WITH THE TRACK BEGINNING 7.4 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EAST END IN SALINE COUNTY TO 2.4 MILES SOUTH OF SWEET HOME IN PULASKI COUNTY. THIS TORNADO TRACKED THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF LITTLE ROCK. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 17.1 MILES.

THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EAST END TORNADO PRODUCED FOUR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES AS REORGANIZED AND MOVED NORTHEAST. ONE OF THESE TRACKED FROM 2.4 MILES EAST OF SWEET HOME TO 1.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCRAE IN WHITE COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 35 MILES.

THE NEXT TORNADO WENT FROM 1.5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KENSETT IN WHITE COUNTY TO 1.5 MILES EAST OF KENSETT. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED EF1...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 2.8 MILES.

THE FOURTH TORNADO PRODUCED FROM THE ORIGINAL EAST END STORM HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 7.5 MILES...AND WAS RATED EF-3. THIS TORNADO TRACKED FROM 2.2 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WELDON IN JACKSON COUNTY...AND ENDED FOUR MILES EAST OF AUVERGNE. A CHURCH WAS DESTROYED...AS WELL AS A POWER SUBSTATION.

THE STORM PRODUCED AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO TRACK BEFORE REACHING EAST END. THIS SEGMENT OF THE STORM ORIGINATED 3.3 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELFAST AND ENDED 1.0 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BELFAST AND WAS 2.8 MILES LONG. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED AS AN EF1 AND REMAINED IN GRANT COUNTY FOR ITS DURATION. THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME AND A CHURCH AND HALF OF A BARN ROOF WAS REMOVED. THERE WERE ALSO NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN.

TORNADO DAMAGE HAS ALSO BEEN CONFIRMED IN NORTHERN MARION COUNTY TO THE NORTHWEST OF OAKLAND. THE TRACK OF THIS TORNADO HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 2.9 MILES LONG AND EXTENDED FROM 0.2 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PRICE PLACE TO 2.7 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PRICE PLACE. THERE WAS ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE TO SIX HOMES AND NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED AS AN EF1.

ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS SPAWNED NEAR PRINCETON IN DALLAS COUNTY.

STORMS ON MAY 1ST...

AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES WAS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EVENING OF MAY 1ST. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS...OR STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS...DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ROTATION WAS STRONG

AT TIMES WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS...AND THERE WERE QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IN MOST CASES...IT APPEARS THE FUNNELS DID NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.

THERE WERE NOT MORE TORNADOES PARTLY DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR AS THE EVENT STARTED. ONCE SHEAR BECAME MORE SIGNIFICANT LATER IN THE EVENT...THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FORTUNATELY...THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS DID NOT COME TOGETHER.

EVEN SO...SOME DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR HAZEN IN PRAIRIE COUNTY AND PENROSE IN WOODRUFF COUNTY. THE DAMAGE MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES PRODUCED BY A STORM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE SHEAR VALUES WERE HIGHEST DURING THE EVENT.

THE FIRST TORNADO FROM MAY 1ST HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. THE TORNADO OCCURRED IN WOODRUFF COUNTY AND STARTED 1.5 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PENROSE AND TRAVELED 2.3 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE ENTERING THE MEMPHIS COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF1. A WALL WAS CAVED IN AT A FLYING SERVICE AND PART OF THE ROOF WAS REMOVED. OTHER DAMAGE INCLUDED PART OF A ROOF AND TWO WALLS BEING REMOVED FROM A HOUSE. THERE ALSO NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN INCLUDING A PICK UP TRUCK CRUSHED BY A TREE.

Quick Update

Sorry for the long delay in posting. I get in a habit of doing my normal stuff and forget about posting completely. This post will be very short and to the point.

Monday: Upper level system swinging through brings us mostly cloudy conditions and that will help keep us cooler with highs in the mid 60s.

Tuesday & Wednesday: High pressure will take control bringing us a mostly sunny day on Tuesday and warming us near 70. Another upper level impulse moves through the northwest flow Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing more clouds. Some models are advertising some moisture in the area on Wednesday, but I think our air will be too dry at the surface to see any showers.

Long Range: A big time low pressure will be winding up in the Plains on Friday and we will be in the warm sector. That just means we will be in a warm, moist and unstable area of this storm system. Right now it appears we could see some strong to severe storms, but things could still change. Just giving you all a heads up for later this week.

That's it for this post and it's time for some sleep. Have a great week!!