Rain ahead, what about snow?

It seems like years since I last updated the blog, but it actually was in June. I need to get back in the habbit of going more in depth with the forecast on here. With winter weather there is always more to talk about so I'll definitely start updating more often.

First off today expect the clouds to increase through the day as moisture starts to increase in advance of our storm system that moves through the area on Saturday. Showers will begin to develop after midnight and become more widespread on Saturday as a trough moves into the area. Rain will be heavy at times and it looks like we could see a general .50"-.75" of rain by the time Saturday night rolls around. Here is a look at 2 forecast models, the GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM (North American Mesoscale) and how much rain they are advertising for Region 8.
 


 

A cold front will move through the area on Saturday evening and behind it will be the coldest temperatures of the season! But the question is, will the cold air reach the moisture before it exits on Saturday night? I'm going to show you a few maps to give you a better idea of what looks to happen.

The map below is the 1000-500mb Thickness & Sea Level Pressure map from the GFS for Saturday night at 6pm. Follow the pink line...it's the 540 height line which is a good rain/snow line estimate. It's not all we look at to determine between rain and snow and other winter precip, but it's one assessment. With that said the pink line is just to our southeast and we still have some precipitation in the area. 

Looking at some other parameters from the GFS it gives us the possibilty for a few flakes of snow on Saturday night. The NAM is a little slower with the colder air and has most of the rain out of here, which means it thinks we have a less chance of seeing some snow. A few of the other computer models I look at still show the chance for at least a few flakes of snow mixing in. However, no accumulation is expected.

What we can expect is MUCH COLDER temperatures beginning on Sunday. The map below shows temperatures for Sunday afternoon. 

 Low 30s will be our highs on Sunday, but it will be blustery with northwest winds 10-20mph. That will give us wind chill values in the 10s and 20s so get ready for a blast of cold air. Here is a look at my latest forecast as of midday.




(Click on pic for larger image)


 That's all that you get from me for now.  ;)  It's time to head home from work and take a nap. Have a great weekend!!!